The Fed meets this week: will San Diego mortgage rates come down?

Quick answer: Will this week's Fed meeting lower mortgage rates in San Diego?

Probably not by much. The Fed meets October 27 to 28, and markets mostly expect a hold. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.32% on October 22, per Freddie Mac. In San Diego County, the September median single-family price was $1,050,000, so plan around today's rate instead of waiting on the Fed.

Key takeaways

• Rates eased slightly to 7.32% on October 22, but they're still about a point above a year ago.
• Markets expect the Fed to hold this week and lean toward a hike in December.
• San Diego County's median price dipped 3.7% from August to September, and sales slowed.

If you've been waiting for the Fed to "fix" mortgage rates before you buy or sell, this is the week you'll hear a lot about it. Here's what's expected, and what it means for your plans in San Diego County.

What is the Fed expected to do this week?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27 and 28. The federal funds rate sits at 3.75% to 4%, after the Fed raised it in September, according to Fortune (October 26, 2026).

As of mid-October, CME FedWatch showed about an 80% chance the Fed holds steady this week, and markets firmly expected a hike at the December 9 meeting, as reported by Forbes (October 19, 2026). In other words, the base case isn't a cut.

Does the Fed set mortgage rates?

No. The Fed sets a short-term rate. Mortgage rates track longer-term bond yields, which react to inflation, jobs data, and what the Fed signals about the future. So the tone of Wednesday's statement can matter more than the decision itself. If you want the basics, here's how mortgage interest rates affect your payment.

Here's where rates stand. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed at 7.32% on October 22, 2026, down from 7.40% the week before but up from 6.19% a year earlier. That 7.40% reading is the one we covered in what 7.4% rates mean for San Diego buyers and sellers.

What's happening with San Diego County home prices?

The California Association of Realtors (released October 19, 2026) reported San Diego County's September median single-family price at $1,050,000. That's down 3.7% from $1,090,000 in August but up 6.1% from $990,000 in September 2025. Closed sales fell 12.2% from a year earlier.

So prices are still above last year, but fewer homes are selling and the summer peak is behind us. You can see the latest local numbers on our San Diego market snapshot.

What does this mean for San Diego buyers?

Run the numbers at today's rate, not the rate you hope for. My own calculation, assuming the $1,050,000 county median, 20% down, and a 30-year fixed with principal and interest only (no taxes, insurance, or HOA):

• At 7.32%: about $5,770 a month
• At 7.40%: about $5,816 a month
• At 6.19% (a year ago): about $5,139 a month

The one-week dip saved about $46 a month. Even a quarter-point drop to 7.07% would trim about $142. That's real money, but it's not a reason to sit out if the right home shows up. Plug in your own price and down payment with our mortgage calculator, and ask your lender whether paying mortgage points pencils out on your loan.

With sales down, you may also have more room to negotiate on price, repairs, or credits than you did in the spring.

What does this mean for San Diego sellers?

Buyers are shopping with a payment in mind, and a 7%+ rate shrinks what they can spend. If your home has been sitting, a seller-paid rate buydown can sometimes do more for a buyer than a small price cut. We walk through that trade-off in rate buydown vs. price cut.

Bottom line

This week's Fed meeting probably won't bring mortgage rates down in a meaningful way, and the market is already looking toward December. In San Diego County, prices are still up from last year while sales slow, so plan around the rate you can get today and negotiate from there.

Want to know what this means for your home or your search? Call or text me at (858) 295-0556, or book a quick call at https://calendly.com/mance-riederhomes/strategycall. Ready to look? Search San Diego County homes for sale.

Keep reading

• Are San Diego pending home sales signaling a buyer's market?
• Should I lock my interest rate when buying in San Diego?
• How much home can I afford in San Diego?

Mance Rieder | Broker Associate, DRE #02050930 | Rieder Homes Group | REAL Broker, LLC