San Diego pending home sales are down 22%: is it a buyer's market now?

Quick answer: Is San Diego a buyer's market now that pending sales are falling?

Not across the board. Pending sales in the San Diego metro fell 22.6% year over year in the four weeks ending October 11, 2026, per Redfin. But San Diego County had just 2.4 months of supply for detached homes in September. Condos and townhomes, at 4.0 months, give buyers more room to negotiate.

Key takeaways

• Fewer San Diego buyers are going into contract than a year ago.
• Detached homes are still tight: inventory fell 12.9% from last September.
• Condos and townhomes are where buyers have the most leverage right now.

If you saw this week's headlines about falling home sales and wondered whether San Diego prices are about to tumble, you're not alone. The short version: buyers are pulling back, but sellers of houses aren't flooding the market.

What happened in the housing market this week?

On October 15, Redfin reported that the national median asking price slipped 0.3% year over year, the first annual decline since March, in the four weeks ending October 11, 2026. A record 22% of listings nationwide had a price drop.

The same report listed San Diego among the biggest declines in pending sales of the 50 largest metros: down 22.6% year over year, third behind Seattle and Atlanta. Redfin noted pending sales fell in every metro it tracked.

Rates are a big part of the story. Freddie Mac's October 15 survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, unchanged from the week before and up from 6.27% a year earlier. If you missed it, here's our breakdown of what 7.4% rates mean in San Diego.

Does fewer sales mean San Diego is a buyer's market?

Not for houses. A buyer's market usually needs more homes for sale than buyers can absorb, and that's not what the San Diego County numbers show for detached homes.

According to the September 2026 Monthly Indicators report for San Diego County (San Diego MLS data as of October 5, 2026):

• Detached pending sales: 1,082, down 16.8% from September 2025
• Detached inventory: 2,950 homes, down 12.9%
• Detached months of supply: 2.4, down 14.3%
• Detached median sales price: $1,079,000, up 5.8%

So buyers stepped back, but owners stepped back too. With only 2.4 months of supply, detached homes are still closer to a seller's market than a buyer's market. If you want the full definitions, see what a buyer's market vs. a seller's market means in San Diego.

Where do San Diego buyers have more leverage?

Condos and townhomes. The same September report shows a different picture for attached homes:

• Attached inventory: 2,734 homes, up 5.8%
• Attached months of supply: 4.0, up 5.3%
• Attached median sales price: $670,000, down 0.2%
• Attached median days on market: 44, up 4.8%

Four months of supply is roughly balanced, and that's where you can ask for more: a closing cost credit, a repair credit, or a price below list. Here's how a seller concession works in San Diego.

Payments are the reason so many buyers paused. Using the September medians and the 7.40% Freddie Mac rate, my own calculation (20% down, 30-year fixed, principal and interest only, before taxes, insurance, and HOA dues) puts a $1,079,000 detached home at about $5,977 a month and a $670,000 condo at about $3,711. Run your own numbers with our mortgage calculator.

What should San Diego sellers do with this news?

Price for the buyers who are still here. In the City of San Diego, Redfin shows homes sold in a median of 28 days in September 2026, and 34.3% of homes had a price drop. The homes that sell quickly are priced right on day one.

If you're selling a condo or townhome, expect more competition from other listings and plan for questions about HOA dues and concessions. If you're selling a house, you still have less competition than last year, but fewer buyers means a missed price costs you more time. We covered this in more detail in are San Diego home prices dropping?

Bottom line

Fewer San Diego buyers are writing offers, but detached inventory is still tight, so this isn't a buyer's market for houses. Condos and townhomes are the exception, and that's where buyers have the most room to negotiate today.

Want to know what this means for your home or your search? Call or text me at (858) 295-0556, or book a quick call at https://calendly.com/mance-riederhomes/strategycall.

Keep reading

• Rate buydown vs. price cut: which helps San Diego sellers more?
• What days on market tell San Diego buyers
• How to tell if a San Diego home is overpriced

Mance Rieder | Broker Associate, DRE #02050930 | Rieder Homes Group | REAL Broker, LLC