San Diego rents are expected to rise just 1.5% a year: what the new USC forecast means for you

Quick answer: Are San Diego rents still going up?

Yes, but slowly. A USC Lusk Center forecast released November 10, 2026 expects San Diego County rents to rise about 1.5% a year through 2029, from a $2,592 average in June 2026 to $2,707 by June 2029. About 16,000 new apartments since late 2023 are the main reason growth has cooled.

Key takeaways

• Rents are forecast to grow about 1.5% a year in San Diego County through 2029.
• The county added about 16,000 apartments since late 2023.
• Vacancy was 6.31% in June 2026 and is expected to tighten to 4.9%.

If you rent in San Diego County, you've probably braced for another big renewal increase. If you own a rental, you may have noticed your last vacancy took longer to fill. A forecast released this week helps explain both.

What did the USC forecast say about San Diego rents?

On November 10, the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate released its annual Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast. KPBS reported the San Diego County numbers (November 10, 2026):

• Average rent was $2,592 in June 2026.
• Rents are forecast to grow about 1.5% a year on average, reaching $2,707 by June 2029.
• Vacancy was 6.31% in June and is expected to fall to 4.9% as new units fill.

That 1.5% pace sits just above Los Angeles County (1.4%) and below Orange County (1.9%) and the Inland Empire (2.4%), per the same report. San Diego's average rent is about 7% below Orange County's $2,792 June average, according to MyNewsLA's coverage of the forecast (November 10, 2026).

Why are San Diego rents cooling?

Supply. San Diego County added about 16,000 apartments since late 2023, roughly twice Orange County's new supply over the same period, according to the KPBS report. About 34% of those recent deliveries were Class B, or midrange, units, not only high-end towers.

The forecast's author, USC associate professor Moussa Diop, put it plainly: "Housing cannot be affordable unless we have plenty of it."

Keep in mind what the forecast doesn't say. Rents aren't falling. They're still expected to rise every year, just at a slower pace than the jumps many renters saw earlier this decade.

What does this mean if you rent?

At the forecast pace, a $2,592 rent goes up about $39 a month at the next renewal. (That's my own calculation: $2,592 times 1.5%, using the county average. Your building and unit can differ.)

With vacancy above 6% in June, more units are competing for tenants. Before you sign a renewal, compare it with similar listings nearby and ask your landlord what flexibility they have.

Slower rent growth also takes some pressure off the "buy now or pay more later" feeling. If you're weighing it anyway, start with the long-term math of buying versus renting in San Diego.

What does this mean if you own a rental?

Slower rent growth means tighter margins, especially if you bought with a higher rate. If you're running numbers on a new purchase, see whether a San Diego rental condo pays for itself at today's rates.

Vacancy now costs more than a small rent increase earns. One empty month at $2,592 roughly equals five and a half years of a $39 monthly increase. (My calculation: $39 times 12 is $468 a year, and $2,592 divided by $468 is about 5.5.) Pricing at the market, rather than last year's rent, often keeps a unit filled.

Local rules keep changing, too. If you've considered short-term or furnished rentals, read up on San Diego's short-term rental eviction loophole before you change your setup.

Should you buy instead of rent right now?

It depends on your timeline and your payment. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.18% on November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before and up from 6.22% a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac.

Run a real payment at today's rate with the Rieder Homes Group mortgage calculator, then compare it with your rent plus a 1.5% yearly bump.

Prices matter as much as rates. For the latest local picture, see whether San Diego home prices are falling this fall.

Bottom line

San Diego County rents are still rising, but the forecast calls for about 1.5% a year through 2029 as new apartments fill. Renters have more room to compare, landlords need to price to the market, and buyers can make a choice based on math instead of fear of runaway rents.

Want to know what this means for your home or your search? Call or text me at (858) 295-0556, or book a quick call at https://calendly.com/mance-riederhomes/strategycall. Ready to see what's for sale? Browse San Diego County homes for sale.

Keep reading

• How much home can I afford in San Diego?
• Condo or house in San Diego: where buyers have more room to negotiate
• The Fed meeting and San Diego mortgage rates

Mance Rieder | Broker Associate, DRE #02050930 | Rieder Homes Group | REAL Broker, LLC